Opening The Oscar (Search) Envelope

Time to smooth the champagne flutes in addition to brush upwards on your pic trivia—it’s almost Oscar nighttime again. Before you lot brand whatsoever Oscar bets, instruct an border past times exploring last year, patterns inward search demeanour tin forcefulness out attention us predict which stars volition become abode amongst shiny gilded statues. So without farther delay, let’s opened upwards the (search) envelopes in addition to run across who the Oscar (may) become to this year.

Best Picture
Last twelvemonth nosotros institute that for 3 years running, the films that won best painting had 2 things inward mutual when it came to search data. First, the winning movies had all shown an upward tendency inward search book for at to the lowest degree 4 consecutive weeks during the previous year. Second, inside the U.S. the winning celluloid had the highest pct of its searches originating from the land of New York. Looking at search information for 2011, at that spot were 3 films that satisfied these conditions—The King’s Speech, The Social Network in addition to Black Swan. Our prediction was on the mark: The King’s Speech took abode the Oscar inward 2011.

This year, if nosotros assume the 2 “winning conditions”—at to the lowest degree 4 consecutive weeks of increasing search book addition highest regional involvement from New York—will apply, in addition to then nosotros tin forcefulness out narrow downwards the nominees to a field of four: The Artist, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Midnight inward Paris in addition to War Horse. But how to become from 4 to one?

Let’s 1 time to a greater extent than await dorsum at in conclusion year’s finalists. When you lot compare search interrogation volumes for The King’s Speech, The Social Network in addition to Black Swan, the winning film, The King’s Speech, had the lowest search volume throughout the twelvemonth leading upwards to the Oscars. It was the underdog that took abode the statue.


We tried the same show on the Best Picture nominees from 2010. The nominated movies inward 2010 that met the 2 weather condition were The Hurt Locker in addition to Inglourious Basterds. Once again, it was the the winning film, The Hurt Locker, that had lower search volume inward 2009.

If the underdog tendency holds this year, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close could live our surprise winner. If nosotros become strictly past times search popularity, however, The Artist or Midnight inward Paris accept the best chances—among our grouping of four, they’re currently blowing the contender out of the water.


If we’re having a popularity contest, it’s exclusively fair to await at all nine nominees for best picture. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 2-step comparing shows that the most popular films past times search book are The Help in addition to Martin Scorsese's Hugo.

Best Actor
Of this year’s 5 nominees for Best Actor, Brad Pitt (Moneyball) is clearly the most popular—searches for Brad inward the in conclusion 12 months far outpace whatsoever of the other leading men, every bit was the representative inward 2009 when he was nominated for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. However, it could live Brad’s famous proficient looks that accept us searching, which brings nearly a proficient point: the most searched-for nominee doesn’t guarantee a win. James Franco had the highest search book inward 2011 but Colin Firth won, in addition to inward 2010, George Clooney was the most-searched nominee but Jeff Bridges took abode the Oscar.

The designing emerging over the past times few years is that the winner is to a greater extent than frequently than non inward the middle of the pack inward price of searches in addition to has relatively steady search book throughout the year. First-time nominee Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) fits that nib this year, but thus does George Clooney (The Descendants). Maybe it volition finally live George’s twelvemonth to win Best Actor.


Best Actress
For the past times 3 years, the eventual Best Actress winner has seen a spike of involvement inward the preceding December. Additionally, 2 of the 3 most recent winners accept had the strongest regional involvement inside the U.S. from the cities of Los Angeles in addition to New York City (2010 winner Sandra Bullock is the exception).

Among this year’s nominees, Rooney Mara is the clear breakout star, amongst a huge surge inward search book this past times Dec for the immature Pb inward The Girl amongst the Dragon Tattoo. However, it’s Meryl Streep who has the highest regional involvement inward NYC in addition to patch Rooney is pop inward LA, she’s fifty-fifty to a greater extent than pop inward San Francisco. So it could live her advert that is announced when the envelope is opened—or not.


Of course, nosotros don’t accept a Magic 8-Ball or access to the names inward those top-secret envelopes, thus our predictions are simply that—but it’s ever enjoyable to await at how what people are interested inward online plays out inward the existent world. As you lot cook for your Oscar viewing parties this year, set a see to Insights for Search on your checklist earlier the ruby-red carpeting walk begins (fun fact: searches for [red carpet] peak at Oscar fourth dimension every year). Between dry out cleaning your tuxedo in addition to making hors d'oeuvres, melody inward to a pre-Oscar hangout on the +Good Morning America page, where the alive give-and-take volition live the fashion dos in addition to don'ts of the big night. You tin forcefulness out also remain upwards to appointment on all Oscar tidings on +Oscars, the official Google+ Page of the Academy Awards.


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